When Maldivians headed to the polls on April 4, 2026, they weren’t just voting for their local councils and Women’s Development Committees. They were handed a critical referendum: should we merge the presidential and parliamentary elections?

The ruling party, PNC, campaigned hard on the premise that merging the elections would save the state millions. But when we strip away the political talking points and look at the actual economics of the 2026 LCE and referendum cycle, a fascinating and vastly unequal financial picture emerges.

The Price of Organizing an Election

Before a single campaign rally is held, the state has to foot the bill for the democratic process itself. Printing ballot papers, deploying officials, and securing ballot boxes across islands doesn’t come cheap.

According to the Elections Commission, organizing this specific election cycle cost an estimated MVR 70 to 80 million.

Out of 294,876 eligible voters, 221,111 showed up, a 73% turnout. If we take the midpoint of the EC’s estimate (MVR 75 million) and divide it by the number of people who actually cast a ballot, the logistical cost of this exercise comes out to roughly MVR 339 per voter.

But logistics is just the baseline. The true economic shock is found in the campaign financing.

Campaign Spending by the Numbers

The referendum essentially became a proxy battle between the ruling PNC (campaigning for “YES”) and the opposition MDP (campaigning for “NO”).

Let’s look at the estimated campaign spending. The opposition MDP operated on a relatively lean budget, as their bank accounts are frozen, estimated at MVR 3 million. The ruling PNC, on the other hand, is estimated to have poured a staggering MVR 300 million into their political machinery to secure a win.

When the dust settled, the results were definitive:

• YES (PNC): 67,680 votes (31.26%)

• NO (MDP): 148,859 votes (68.75%)

If we treat these results as the ultimate return on investment (ROI) for their respective campaigns, the cost-per-vote reveals a stark contrast.

The ROI of a Vote

For the MDP, their MVR 3 million campaign yielded 148,859 votes. That means the opposition spent exactly MVR 20.15 to secure a single vote. It was a masterclass in grassroots mobilization and organic political momentum.

On the flip side, the PNC’s estimated MVR 300 million campaign war chest only managed to rally 67,680 supporters. That translates to an eye-watering MVR 4,432.62 spent per vote.

The Lesson

The 2026 referendum is a stark reminder that in Maldivian politics, outspending your opponent 100-to-1 does not guarantee a victory. The electorate decisively rejected the referendum, handing the ruling party an expensive lesson in political economics.

A vote, it turns out, costs the state about MVR 339 to print, facilitate, and count. But its political price tag? That depends entirely on whose campaign is footing the bill.

I was on holiday recently, trying my best to disconnect, but the news out of the Middle East, the Iran war, made that impossible. I ended up pulling out my laptop, crunching some numbers, and building a few economic models to see exactly how bad this could get for us here at home.

Because let’s face it: the collective sigh of relief we breathed at the end of 2025, when the MMA reported that inflation had dropped to an incredible 0.4%, is completely gone now. The global landscape has shifted violently in just a few weeks. A sudden start of the Iran war and the escalation in the Middle East are disrupting oil supplies, and at the same time, global travel is taking a hit, threatening our tourism revenues.

For an island nation that imports almost everything it consumes, this is the perfect storm. We’re looking at a classic “Dual Shock.” Here is what the maths is telling us and what it actually means for your household budget this year.

Shock 1: The Oil Spike

First, there’s the obvious one: global energy markets. With Brent crude shooting past $110 a barrel, the cost of bringing energy into the Maldives has skyrocketed.

Economists call this cost-push inflation, but on the ground, the reality is much simpler. Fuel is the lifeblood of our supply chain. The moment STO and FSM pay more for wholesale diesel, it costs more to run a fishing boat, keep a local island generator running, or put goods on a supply ferry to the atolls. That ripple effect is almost instant.

Shock 2: The Dollar Squeeze

Then there’s the second blow. The war is messing with global travel, and any forecasted dip in tourist arrivals directly chokes off our US dollar supply.

We all know the official MMA rate is pegged at 15.42 MVR. But ask any local business importing food or building materials what they actually pay. When the banks can’t supply enough dollars, importers are forced into the black market. They pay a massive premium to get the currency they need, and they pass that extra cost straight to us at the checkout counter to protect their margins.

Under the Hood: The Math

If you want to see how I modeled this out, I used an “Augmented Phillips Curve”: a standard tool for highly exposed, small open economies like ours. The math looks like this:

In plain English, here is the breakdown of the above formula. Basically, tomorrow’s prices depend on four main things:

1. Past Inflation:

2. The jump in global oil prices:

3. Local demand:

   And here comes the real kicker.

4. Our effective exchange rate:

Because we can’t pretend the official 15.42 rate is the only one that matters, the model has to calculate the “effective” rate using this formula:

Here:

is the bank rate. And,

is the black market rate. The,

is just the share of dollars actually available through the banks.

As tourism drops, that share shrinks. Businesses are forced to buy more expensive black-market dollars, driving the effective rate up. The effective rate in the formula is:

This usually hits our wallets in three distinct waves:

1. Immediately: Retail petrol and diesel prices get hiked.

2. Within 1-3 Months: Maritime freight and fisheries operating costs surge. Sending anything between atolls gets noticeably more expensive.

3. Within 3-6 Months: Shops and businesses have absorbed all the electricity and logistics hikes they can handle. They pass the rest on, meaning your weekly grocery run suddenly costs a lot more.

Where Are We Heading in 2026?

Plugging our December baseline and the current constraints into the model, I’m looking at two main trajectories for the rest of the year:

• Scenario A: The Moderate Squeeze. If oil calms down around $110/bbl and tourism only takes a slight hit (say 10-15%), the MMA can probably manage the dollar rationing. It won’t be fun, but it’s survivable. The combined pressure of expensive fuel and a mild black market premium will likely push headline inflation between 7.5% and 9.5% by year-end.

  ---

• Scenario B: The Stagflation Threat. This is the ugly one. If crude keeps climbing toward $130 or $150 and tourists decide to stay home (a drop of over 25%), the black market dollar rate could easily break 20 MVR. That triggers stagflation. The economy stalls out, but prices explode anyway. We’d be looking at inflation hitting 12.0% to 18.0%, leading to acute spikes on basic, essential goods.

Let’s Do the Math on Your Next Grocery Bill

Let’s take this out of the macroeconomic clouds and bring it right down to the checkout counter at your local Redwave or corner shop.

Imagine your standard, mid-week grocery run. You walk in with a crisp 500 rufiyaa note. Currently, that 500 MVR buys you a decent basket of basics: a tray of eggs, a bottle of cooking oil, a whole imported chicken, a packet of Milo for the kids, and maybe some onions and potatoes.

Here is what happens to that exact same basket of food under my two models by the end of the year:

Under Scenario A (The Moderate Squeeze): With inflation running between 7.5% and 9.5%, that 500 MVR basket now costs you between 538 and 548 MVR.

• The Reality: It doesn’t sound like the end of the world, but your 500-rufiyaa note no longer covers the bill. To stay on budget, you are standing at the register making compromises. You are putting the Milo back on the shelf, or you are downgrading to a cheaper, lower-quality cooking oil. You are paying the same amount of money for a worse standard of living.

Under Scenario B (The Stagflation Threat): If the black market dollar premium explodes and inflation hits that 12.0% to 18.0% range, things get ugly. That same basket of groceries now rings up between 560 and 590 MVR.

• The Reality: You are now paying almost 600 MVR for what used to cost 500. That extra 60 to 90 MVR is essentially a “phantom tax” created by the war effects and the dollar shortage.

And remember, this is just for a single small grocery run. If your family typically spends 5,000 MVR a month on food, Scenario B means you will need to find an extra 600 to 900 MVR every single month just to put the exact same meals on the table. Your salary hasn’t gone up, but your purchasing power has been quietly slashed by the global market.

That 0.4% inflation rate estimated in December feels like a lifetime ago. Over the coming months, it is not only oil prices but also keeping a watch on our tourism numbers. As long as those flights continue to arrive and bring dollars to our shores, we can withstand this challenge. If they slow down, we’re in for a rough ride.

Dear Mr President,

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East presents an unprecedented macroeconomic risk to the Maldives. With tourism arrivals already contracting by 21% and domestic oil prices reaching 30 MVR, we are operating on borrowed time before imported inflation triggers a severe economic downturn. If this conflict prolongs more than a month, I predict that a harsh economic recession is inevitable.

An economic recession extends far beyond GDP contractions; it directly erodes the livelihoods of citizens in many ways. To mitigate this, we need a decisive pivot in our fiscal policy. The government must immediately suspend non-essential, import-heavy capital expenditures, such as major dredging projects, to preserve vital foreign exchange.

Our balance of payments is increasingly vulnerable. The state must prioritise securing USD and bilateral credit facilities exclusively for inelastic imports: fuel, staple foods, and medical supplies. Concurrently, we need to fortify targeted social safety nets to protect our most vulnerable households from impending price shocks.

Averting a sovereign liquidity crisis must be the administration’s primary directive. I urge the Ministry of Finance to draft a supplementary crisis budget for transparent parliamentary debate. While careful, strictly targeted monetary financing (printing Rufiyaa) might be required to maintain domestic liquidity, it demands extreme fiscal discipline.

Navigating a wartime economy requires immense public trust and political maturity. The government should initiate a bipartisan dialogue to reach a consensus on recession-era macroeconomic stabilisation. We cannot afford to let upcoming election cycles distract from an energy shock that threatens our core economy.

I respectfully urge the government to recalibrate its focus toward these mounting economic headwinds. History will evaluate this government based on its economic stewardship during this critical window. We need proactive, crisis-aware governance today, before the window for intervention closes. Govern for the crisis, not the ballot box.

I haven’t stepped foot in a President’s Office press conference for about a year. But this past Thursday, I decided it was time. With the drums of war beating between Iran and its neighbours, I wasn’t there for the pleasure of just the privilege of attending a press conference in the fancy president's office. I went because I wanted to hear how our government plans to steer our tiny economic ship through the coming storm.

I went armed with my notebook, a few projections I’d been working on, and a list of questions about fiscal policy, inflation, and the “bitter” economic reality we are all sensing.

I left with a notebook full of tally marks and a very empty feeling in my gut.

The 20-Tally Rule

The first thing you notice in these briefings isn’t the data, it’s the script.

The press conference was squeezed in just before Iftar, a classic “blink-and-you’ll-miss-it” timing that left zero room for actual grilling. But what really struck me was the vocabulary. If I had turned it into a drinking game, I wouldn’t have made it to the main course of dinner.

In my notebook, I started keeping a tally. “Under the President’s guidance...” “As the President instructed...” “The President is closely monitoring...” By the time the ministers were done, I had counted that sentiment around 20 times.

Look, we get it. Dr. Mohamed Muizzu is the President. We know he’s in charge. We know he’s “monitoring” things. But when the global economy is shaking, we don’t need a reminder of who is sitting in the big chair; we need to know what that person is actually doing with the numbers.

The Sound of Silence on Economics

What I didn’t hear was far more deafening than what I did.

I was waiting for the “S-words” and the “G-words”: Stagflation. GDP impacts. Fiscal policy shifts. Revenue shortfalls. I wanted to hear how the war would dent our budget and what the government’s plan B, C, and D looked like.

Instead, the vibe was: “Everything is fine. Don’t worry about it.”

They mentioned “cutting costs,” but in the vaguest way possible. Which departments? How much? When? No one knows. While they talk about “austerity,” we still see the same shiny, expensive land reclamation projects being paraded around and hiring more staffs in SOEs for the sake of the upcoming elections. It’s like a family insisting on buying a new gold-plated TV while the roof is literally on fire.

A Plea for Some Radical Honesty

We are in a campaign season, so I understand the urge to paint everything in rose-colored hues. But as a citizen, the “everything is great” routine is getting exhausting.

If things are going to get expensive, tell us.

If we need to save electricity, tell us.

If the global crisis means we have to pause the flashy “glitter” projects to keep the lights on, tell us.

Personally? I’d go a step further. I think we should hit the pause button on elections and referendums until the Iran War settles. We can’t afford to be distracted by the ballot box while the economy is on a tightrope.

The biggest problem I have right now isn’t that the news is bad. It’s that the government refuses to speak to us like adults. We don’t need a chorus of ministers telling us how much “guidance” they are receiving. We need them to look us in the eye and tell us the truth, however bitter it may be.

Ahmed Inaz, the Chairperson of the Pension Office Board, has stepped down. The move was not a normal changing of the guard; it was a protest and a warning about a “huge danger” to the Maldivian economy.

Inaz made it clear in his resignation that the government was pressuring him to use the Pension Fund to pay for state expenses. In simple terms, the government wants to use the money you save for retirement to pay its daily bills. This is a step toward debt monetization in economic terms, and it marks a shift in our monetary system.

The MVR 2.4 Billion Ultimatum: A Case of Fiscal Dominance

The issue at hand is a request for the Pension Fund to buy MVR 2.4 billion worth of Treasury Bills (T-Bills).

This isn’t a normal way to invest; it’s a perfect example of Fiscal Dominance. This occurs when the fiscal authority (the government) forces financial institutions to subordinate their goals to the government’s need for cash. By putting pressure on the Pension Office, the administration wants to roll over old debts and bring in new cash.

Inaz said NO, saying that because of the current state of the economy, especially the lack of foreign currency reserves, monetizing the debt this way is financially irresponsible.We are effectively unbolting a door that responsible monetary policy had kept shut for decades.

The Myth of “Free Money”: What is Quantitative Easing?

We need to look at the tool that the government is trying to mimic, Quantitative Easing (QE), to see how dangerous it is.

The Bank of Japan was the first to use QE as an unusual way to fight stagnation and deflation in 2001. It means that a central bank buys long-term securities, like government bonds, from the open market to make more money available and encourage banks to lend. The US and Europe used it again during the financial crisis of 2008.

But there’s a big problem: only strong economies with reserve currencies (like the Yen, Dollar, or Euro) can use QE. These countries can print more money without hurting the value of their currency right away because the world still needs their money for trade.

The Maldives does not have this privilege.Our country depends on imports and has a fixed exchange rate. We can’t “ease” our way to prosperity. If we print Rufiyaa without getting the same amount of US Dollars, the extra money will just chase the same amount of goods. It doesn’t boost the economy; it kills the currency.

The Ghana Warning: A Lesson in QE Gone Wrong

If you think this is too scary, look at Ghana.

Ghana tried a similar plan to fix its budget problems in 2020. The Bank of Ghana did a lot of deficit financing, which they called “printing money” to lend to the government. This was a type of quantitative easing.

The outcome was not stability; it was economic destruction.

• Hyperinflation: Ghana’s inflation rate rose to more than 50%.

• Currency Collapse: In just one year, the value of the Ghanaian Cedi dropped by more than half against the US Dollar.

• The “Junk” Rating: Investor confidence evaporated, locking the country out of international capital markets.

Ghana learned the hard way that you cannot print prosperity. When a country without a reserve currency (like the Maldives) attempts to monetize debt without rising productivity, it doesn’t create wealth. It destroys the currency. If we go through with this MVR 2.4 billion injection, the Maldives could end up like Ghana, with a falling Rufiyaa and rising living costs.

The Inflationary Spiral: Why It Matters to You

What does “printing money” mean, and why should you care?

When the government injects MVR 2.4 billion into the economy but Real GDP (productivity) or foreign currency reserves don’t go up, the money supply grows faster than the supply of goods and services.

This starts a classic cycle of inflation.

If this deal goes through, the Rufiyaa in your pocket will no longer be worth what it is. Without US dollars to back up this new liquidity, the exchange rate on the parallel market (black market) will go through the roof, making food and other essentil imports much more expensive for the average household.

Fiscal Irresponsibility Over Consolidation

The government’s refusal to carry out Fiscal Consolidation may be the most worrying part of this story.

When a government is short on cash, it should cut waste, put off projects that aren’t necessary, and shrink the deficit. Instead, we see Fiscal Profligacy. The government keeps starting new infrastructure projects, hiring more political appointees to work for the state, and raising operational costs (opex).

Rather than reducing the deficit through discipline, they are attempting to finance it by raiding the fiduciary savings of the public. They are forcing open a “backdoor” to debt monetization that threatens the country’s financial sovereignty.

The “Invisible Haircut”: Financial Repression

The most alarming impact is on the Pension Fund itself. This is a form of Financial Repression, where the government channels funds to itself at the expense of savers.

The Pension Office is in charge of a portfolio worth about MVR 25 billion right now. The number on the screen that shows the nominal value of your pension account may stay the same, but the real value is under attack.

If this injection of cash leads to the expected rise in prices and fall in the value of the currency, your pension pot will lose 30% to 40% of its buying power.

• The Math: If your pension balance is MVR 123,000, a 30-40% devaluation means the real-world buying power of those savings evaporates.

This is an invisible tax on the future of every Maldivian worker that was put in place without permission.

A Systemic Failure

The fact that Inaz is leaving shows that institutional independence is no longer working. The Pension Office Board, which is in charge of public savings, is being forced to pay for government deficits.

The Ministry of Finance is ignoring the warnings of experts. Instead of following the advice of economic advisors who say to be disciplined with money, they are putting short-term cash flow ahead of long-term stability.

The government may have a legislative supermajority, but a vote in parliament can’t change the laws of economics. The government is leading the Maldives toward a fiscal cliff by ignoring the need to cut costs and choosing the risk of the printing money instead.

There is someone in your life that shapes you. For some, it’s a teacher; for others, it’s a celebrity. For me it’s My grandmother.

She died on March 27, 2024, at 8:23 pm and the silence she left behind is still hard to deal with. She was a midwife at a time when it was rare for women to work, which is a statistical anomaly. Even though the odds were against her, she did an amazing job for her community, bringing life into the world with hands that were both strong and gentle.

She is the one who inspires me. She is the reason I believe in a moderate feminism. Not a feminism of flashy slogans, but one of hard work, service, and the quiet, stubborn refusal to be pushed aside. Not only did she ask for a seat at the table, she made her own chair.

While reading Arundhati Roy’s recent memoir, Mother Mary Comes to Me, I couldn’t stop thinking about her.

Roy is known for her novels that have won the Booker Prize and her fiery political essays, but this book is different. It is a raw, unvarnished picture of her mother, Mary Roy, who was, by all accounts, a force of nature. Mary Roy, like my grandmother, was a woman who wouldn’t let society put her in small boxes. She was a strong-willed teacher and activist who famously sued her own brother to make sure that Christian women in Kerala had the same rights to inherit property as men.

But Roy says she was also scary.

The memoir is not a biography of a saint. It doesn’t make the sharp edges less sharp. Roy talks about a relationship that was unstable and full of both deep love and mental terror. This book is brave because it says that the women who shape us are often not simple. They can be both our heroes and our enemies at the same time.

Roy captures this duality in one of the book’s most powerful passages:

I was moved by how honest this was when I read it. We often make the matriarchs in our lives seem like saints by taking away their humanity. Roy won’t do that. She calls her mother a “gangster,” which means that she had to be tough to stay alive and fight battles that hurt everyone around her, even her daughter.

Mary Roy’s life shows how hard it is to fight for women’s rights. She fought for equal rights in the Supreme Court, and her victory changed the lives of thousands of women. But in her personal life, she was messy, hard to deal with, and demanding. Roy writes:

Mother Mary Comes to Me is hard to read, but you need to read it. It reminds us that the women who came before us were not perfect. They were people. They carried the pain of their times so that we could carry a little less of it.

I think of my grandmother, who was a midwife. I think about the babies she caught and the mothers she helped. She might not have been as unstable in public as Mary Roy, but she had the same strong backbone. She was the one who gave me strength and rebellion.

I can’t recommend this book highly enough if you want to read something that questions the simple stories of motherhood and feminism. It is a tribute to the “savage grace” of the women who came before us, who were both the shelter and the storm.

For months, a folder of 355 documents has been sitting on my laptop. They date back to a specific six-month window in 2022—February to August—when President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu was the Mayor of Malé. Today, I thought I would release them all. So I am doing it. Here it is:

Download the full Data Dump

In investigative journalism, you often look for the “smoking gun.” But sometimes, corruption isn’t a single explosion; it’s a slow, steady leak.It is a pattern of small, bureaucratic maneuvers that, when stitched together, reveal a machine built for purposes other than public service.

For quite some time, I have been analyzing a cache of internal agreements, memos, and bid evaluation reports from the Malé City Council, dated specifically between February 13 and August 14, 2022.

These documents cover a total expenditure of MVR 47,223,029.00.

After cross-referencing contracts, comparing vendor awards,and scrutinizing the timing of payments, my analysis suggests that approximately MVR 14,093,015.00, nearly 30% of the total, is tied to transactions raising serious red flags.

These documents paint a picture of how the City Council may have been maneuvered to serve political ambitions, funded by the public purse.

The Mechanics of the Operation

The memos suggest a centralized operation where procedural safeguards were bypassed with alarming regularity. Orders coming directly from the mayor’s bureau. Key figures, including the former Secretary General of the Council—now the Managing Director of WAMCO, Mujtaba Jaleel—appear frequently in the approval chains of these questionable decisions.

Here are my observations on how the “Data Dump” reveals how the money moved on.

1. Contract Splitting

The most common red flag in public procurement is “splitting”, breaking a large contract into smaller chunks to keep them below the financial threshold that requires a public tender or stricter board approval.

One example is that the documents show this was done repeatedly with catering.

• The Athamana Event: A single event saw its catering split into multiple contracts. Gourmet Fine Dine Super Food was awarded MVR 816,200.00 (Agr 293) and then a second contract for MVR 230,200.00 (Agr 294) for the same distribution event¹.

• Lunch vs. Dinner: For the same event on July 6th and 7th, the Council issued separate contracts to Saifodhu. One agreement was for lunch (MVR 139,920) and another for dinner (MVR 349,800)².

By fragmenting these expenses, millions flowed to vendors without the scrutiny a single MVR 1 million+ tender would invite.

2. Price Paradox: The “Sound Squad” Case

Perhaps the most glaring anomaly involves Sound Squad Pvt Ltd.

• On August 24, 2022, the company was awarded MVR 700,000.00 for sound and lighting for the Madhaha and Quran Mubaaraathu (Agr 316)³.

• Just one week later, on August 31, 2022, a second agreement (Agr 322) was signed with the same company for the same event—but this time the price was MVR 318,000.00.

Why did the price of the same service drop by MVR 382,000 in seven days? Or conversely, why was the first contract inflated by over 100%? The documents offer no justification for this discrepancy.

3. The “Jack of All Trades” Vendors

Preferential treatment appears evident in the Council’s reliance on specific vendors for wildly different services.

• Tonic Live Studio, typically an AV/Events company, was handed a MVR 773,800.00 contract for “WDC Live Setup” (Agr 265).

• Yet, the same company was also awarded a MVR 450,000.00 contract to supply 20 computer systems (Agr 287).

When a music studio is winning IT hardware supply contracts, it suggests the vendor is being chosen for who they are, not what they can arguably do best.

4. The Consultant Army

Between July and August 2022,the Council locked in a cluster of long-term consultants.

• Five separate individuals were given 1-2 year contract extensions in quick succession.

• Their monthly rates ranged from MVR 25,000 to MVR 35,000, totalling millions in committed future spending.

These “consultants”—covering areas from urban planning to management to copywriting—were locked into the payroll just as the mayor’s political profile was expanding.

These are few examples.

The Data Dump: Your Turn

The total monetary value of the red flags I have identified is MVR 14 million, but I believe this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are more.

I am releasing the full dataset, 355 documents, including bid evaluation reports, signed agreements, and internal memos.

I want you to look through them. I want other journalists, auditors, and the public to do the math. And this is why the Auditor General’s Office should audit the City Council thoroughly.

• View the Red Flag Summary Sheet

• Full List of the documents in the data dump

As we stare down the barrel of 2026, the Maldivian economy is facing a “crunch year” unlike any we have seen before. The numbers being thrown around in Parliament and Finance Ministry corridors; billions of dollars, millions in interest, can feel abstract to the average citizen. But let’s make no mistake: the decisions being made right now about how we pay our bills will determine the economic reality for our children.

The government is currently seeking $1 billion in budget support to keep the lights on. But looking at the details of these negotiations, particularly a looming deal with the Cargill Group, it is becoming clear that we are not just solving a liquidity crisis, we are feeding a debt monster that will consume our fiscal space for decades.

The Cargill “Loan Shark” Deal

The most alarming development is the government’s active negotiation to raise USD 300 million from the Cargill Group.

Based on reports and market chatter,this facility is being discussed at an eye-watering 15% interest rate. To put this in perspective,concessional loans from development partners usually carry interest rates below 2% or 3%. Borrowing at 15% is not standard financing; it is distress borrowing.

Cargill Financial Services is known in the sovereign debt world for stepping in when countries have run out of options.They are not a charity; they are a commercial entity maximizing profit. If we sign this deal, we are effectively going to a “loan shark” to pay off our credit card.

The Math of Misery: My estimation is that if we take this $300 million at 15%,we are adding $45 million (approx. MVR 694 million) to our debt service costs every single year just in interest payments alone. That is nearly MVR 700 million that cannot be spent on housing, healthcare, or education. It is money burned to service bad decision-making.

This shrinks our “fiscal space”,the breathing room the government has to actually do constructive things for the economy. We are essentially taking out a high-interest mortgage just to pay for groceries, leaving us with less money next month to buy food.

The Sukuk Shell Game

The immediate trigger for this panic is the massive debt repayment due in 2026. The biggest chunk is the USD 500 million Sukuk (Islamic bond).

The government’s plan to repay this is a mix of refinancing and dipping into our savings. Here is the breakdown of the strategy currently on the table:

• The Burden: We have to find $500 million.

• The “Cash” Payment: The Maldives plans to pay about $150 million directly from our own pockets.

• The Source: This money is largely coming from the Sovereign Development Fund (SDF). The government plans to withdraw roughly $270 million from the SDF, with the majority of that withdrawal going to refinance or pay down the Sukuk.

But the government seems unable to find a clean refinancing deal for the whole amount. Investors are wary. So, the strategy has shifted to a desperate patch-up job: empty the Sovereign Fund of $270 million and borrow the high-interest $300 million from Cargill to plug the rest of the hole.

We are raiding our savings account and maximising our credit card's highest interest at the same time.

Expanding When We Should Contract

My deepest concern, however, isn’t just the loans, it is the policy. The government’s actions are leaning heavily toward an expansionary economic policy.

In simple terms, an expansionary policy means the government is spending more money to stimulate the economy. In normal times, this is good. But right now, our economy is overheating. We have high inflation and a shortage of Dollars. When the government spends borrowed money, it pumps more Rufiyaa into the system.

This creates a “pull factor”:

1. Depreciation: Too much Rufiyaa chasing too few Dollars puts immense pressure on the exchange rate.

2. Inflation: Prices of goods go up.

This is the wrong time to hit the gas. We should be hitting the brakes. We need a contractionary policy; decreasing government spending to cool down the economy and stabilize the Dollar.

The Safety Net Solution

I am not suggesting we starve the people to save the books. I agree that cutting spending hurts, especially the vulnerable. But the solution isn’t blanket spending; it is precision.

To minimize the negative impacts of a contractionary policy, we need a robust, targeted safety net.

• Stop the Wastage: Right now, subsidies (like electricity and fuel) are given to everyone, including the rich and large resorts. This is wasteful.

• Target the Support: We need a proper mechanism to identify the vulnerable populations and route subsidies only to them.

If we fix the subsidy system, we save money. If we save money, we don’t need to borrow $300 million from Cargill at 15%.

The government is currently choosing the easy political path (borrow and spend) over the hard economic reality (cut and restructure). But borrowing from the future at predatory rates isn’t “saving” the economy; it’s selling it. The consequences of this $1 billion gamble will not just be felt in the 2026 budget, they will be paid for by the generations to come.

We are already a few weeks into 2026, and if there is one thing I’ve learned from 15 years of my media experience, it’s that the old ways of doing things are expiring faster than ever.

The days of just publishing a press release and calling it journalism are over. Our audience is smarter, faster, and frankly, a little bored with the standard headlines. As we navigate this year, I’ve been thinking a lot about where we need to go, not just to survive as businesses, but to matter as an institution.

Here are six shifts I believe the Maldives media industry needs to make right now.

1. Less Politics, More People

We spend too much energy chasing politicians and not enough time listening to the people who vote for them. In 2026, our content needs to become radically people-centric.

I’m talking about deep dives into social issues like housing struggles, the cost of living, the mental health crisis, and the drug epidemic. We need to tell stories that make people feel seen, not just informed. When we humanize the news, we stop being just a notification on a screen and start being a voice for the community.

2. The Text is Dead; Long Live the Reel

Okay, writing isn’t dead completely. I’m writing this, aren’t I?.

But the way we consume news has fundamentally shifted. We need to stop prioritizing 800-word articles for a generation that lives on vertical scroll.

The focus must shift to visual content. I’m talking about high-quality, fast-paced TikToks and Instagram Reels. We need to tell the whole story in 60 seconds. It’s not about “dumbing it down”; it’s about respecting our audience’s time. If we can’t capture their attention visually, we lose the chance to inform them entirely.

3. The Golden Age of PODCASTING

We are seeing a massive appetite for long-form conversation. Some people are tired of 10-second soundbites that lack context. They want depth.

We need more podcasts and vodcasts. This is personal for me; bringing Ehbasve Dhebasvamaa to life showed me that Maldivians are craving authentic, unscripted conversations.

In 2026, every major newsroom should have a strong visual arm. It’s intimate, it builds trust, and it accompanies our audience on their commute, their gym sessions, and their downtime.

4. The AI Co-pilot; Smartly and Ethically

By now, in 2026, debating if we should use artificial intelligence is obsolete. The question is how. We need to aggressively integrate AI, not to replace journalists, but to liberate them.

Let’s deploy AI to handle the high-volume, day-to-day churning of routine news and deliver it in short forms. If the AI can handle the basic updates, our human journalists get hours back in their day to focus on what they do best: creating the complex, high-value multimedia content I mentioned above. But this power requires responsibility.

I believe every newsroom needs clear, rigorous ethical guidelines and robust training so our journalists drive the tools, not the other way around.

5. Making “Support” Seamless; The Coffee Model

Quality journalism costs money. We all know this. But the traditional subscription model is a hard sell in the Maldives. We need to get smarter about monetization.

We need to integrate user subscriptions with the tools people already use. I’m picturing a system where you can unlock exclusive content or support a journalist using our national QR system or telecom wallets. It should be as easy as buying a coffee.

Imagine a “Donate a Coffee” button at the bottom of an investigative piece, where a reader can tap and send MVR 30 instantly via their phone. Frictionless micropayments are the future of sustaining independent media here.

6. Be the Mirror and the Mover

Finally, we need to remember our core purpose. We are the mirror of society. But a mirror just reflects; we need to do more. We need to push for policy changes.

Journalism shouldn’t end when the article is published. We need to take our reporting offline and into the real world.

Media houses should be organizing forums, town halls, and policy events that force the uncomfortable conversations. We have the power to set the agenda, let’s use it to actually fix the problems we write about.

The tools have changed from TikTok to AI, but the mission hasn’t. Let’s make 2026 the year we stop catching up and start leading.

As I stood inside the Svetitskhoveli Cathedral in Georgia in January 2025, the winter sun broke through the high windows, casting a singular beam through the incense and dust, I found myself thinking about humanity’s collective search for light.

We often assume that religion is a map to this light, yet so many choose a path of division. They assume that power, wealth, or even conflict in the name of God will grant them peace. But history shows us that this path only leads to destruction.

To me, the core of every faith is much simpler: In order to find light in your life, you have to be a good, honest human being. That is the only true way to find “light in your life” and in whatever comes hereafter.

The Beam at Svetitskhoveli

We all traverse the terrain of sand and gravel,
Hoping to find something special that we can share.

A beacon of hope to illuminate the gloom,
The search for a guiding light is universal.

Still, there will be many who opt for the dark and prideful road.

This is the place where conventional wisdom is twisted and abandoned.

War and walls, so the saying goes, keep the light within.

Hopelessly navigating a door adorned with blood in search of paradise.

Their pursuit of power and wealth is an illusion.

A golden hour, according to this belief.

However, fury and blood do not leave any trace of illumination.

The anguish of a shattered spirit.

Within these ancient halls of worship,
There exists a more direct and profound reality:

There was no creed with the intent to destroy the planet.

Or fan the flames of aggressive longing.

To be a whole human being—truthful, kind, and loving—

Is the sole remedy for a weary spirit.

Walking virtuously is the only path.

To keep searching for the light, both in this life and the next.

We’ve all seen the headlines: tourist arrivals are smashing records, and the Maldives is officially the “it” destination of 2025. But if you look past the glossy Instagram reels of turquoise lagoons, there’s a math problem brewing in our paradise.

The latest data from the Ministry of Tourism shows we’ve hit a massive milestone—over 2 million arrivals by November 2025. But here’s the kicker: we’re building faster than we’re filling.

The Numbers Game: Growth vs. Glut

In the last year alone, the Maldives has expanded its operational capacity by 3,651 beds (increasing from 62,920 in November 2024 to 66,571 in November 2025). On paper, more beds should mean more money. In reality, it’s creating a “capacity trap.”

• Occupancy is Stagnant: Despite the jump in arrivals, our average occupancy rate for the year has dipped slightly to 58% (down from 58.4% in 2024).

• The Price of Empty Beds: When you add 3,000+ new beds but the percentage of people filling them doesn’t rise, it triggers a race to the bottom. Resorts and guesthouses are forced to lower prices to stay competitive, while the fixed costs of running an island—electricity, staff, and imports—stay high or even rise.

Breaking Down the “Value”

We often talk about “Total Arrivals,” but for our generation entering the workforce, the real metrics should be about efficiency.

The Marketing Miss: A Stagnant Budget in a Growing Market

There is a clear solution to this occupancy crisis: Destination Marketing. To fill 66,000+ beds, the Maldives needs to be louder than ever on the global stage.

However, the latest 2025 budget reveals a worrying trend. While the number of beds has surged and the government has hiked the TGST to 17% to collect more from the industry, the promotion budget for the Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC) has remained stagnant at MVR 154.2 million—the exact same amount as 2024.

Industry experts are sounding the alarm. We are essentially building a bigger restaurant but spending the same amount on the “Open” sign. Our regional competitors are outspending us, and without a significant boost in marketing to match our capacity growth, we risk being a destination that has plenty of room but not enough guests to pay the bills.

Why This Matters

For the youth, this isn’t just “business talk.” An oversupplied market with a weak marketing budget means:

1. Lower Service Charges: If room rates drop to attract guests, the service charge in your pocket shrinks.

2. The Sustainability Gap: True sustainability isn’t just about “no plastic straws.” It’s about a value-based model rather than a volume-based model.

3. Career Stagnation: In an industry focused on cutting costs to survive low occupancy, investment in staff training and high-level positions often takes a backseat.

We’ve successfully expanded by over 3,000 beds this year. Now, the challenge isn’t building the next resort; it’s making sure we actually have the budget to tell the world to come and fill them. It’s time to stop measuring success by how many beds we have, and start measuring it by how much value those beds bring to our people.

These debates are difficult, but they are necessary.

First, I want to be clear about where I stand: I am a proud Sunni Muslim, and I strive to practice my faith in my daily life.

However, my views on the availability of alcohol and pork in select city hotels are not rooted in religion; they are rooted in the hard realities of economic diversification and market equity.

The Fairness Gap

A few months ago, I spoke with a senior executive from a major international hotel brand operating in Malé. His frustration was clear: “Why is a city hotel in Hulhulé (HIH) allowed to serve liquor, while we are not?”

From a foreign investor’s perspective, this is a glaring competitive disadvantage. When we invite global brands like Barceló (at Nasandhura) or Hotel Jen into our capital, we expect them to compete on a global stage. Yet, we deny them a revenue stream that their nearby competitors—and every resort in the country—already enjoy.

If a city hotel in Hulhulé can operate under these guidelines, why not a premium city hotel in Malé? The current policy isn’t just inconsistent; it’s unfair.

Regulation vs. The Black Market

We must also address the “floating bar” phenomenon. Currently, almost every local tourist island relies on safari boats anchored offshore to serve alcohol. This “loophole” economy doesn’t just inconvenience tourists; it fosters a thriving black market and creates a regulatory vacuum.

By allowing established city hotels to serve liquor under strict, specific licenses, we bring this activity into a controlled, taxable, and transparent environment. To be clear: I am not suggesting every guesthouse on every local island should have a license. I am advocating for high-standard, regulated licenses for city hotels to displace the shadow economy with professional oversight.

To address both economic needs and social sensitivities, the license should not be a “blanket” permit. It would likely require:

• Zoning & Visibility: Alcohol and pork must be served in designated areas (like a rooftop bar or enclosed restaurant) that are not visible from the street or public areas.

• Passport-Only Service: Serving only foreign passport holders. Maldivian nationals (including those with dual citizenship) would be strictly prohibited from service.

• Employment Restrictions: Only expatriate staff would be allowed to handle, serve, or manage the inventory of alcohol and pork.

• Digital Inventory Tracking: Real-time reporting of sales and stock levels to the Ministry of Economic Development and Customs to prevent leakage into the local black market.

• Security & Surveillance: Mandatory 24/7 CCTV in storage areas and bar entrances, with data accessible to the Maldives Police Service upon request.

The Occupancy Crisis

Our current trajectory is unsustainable. We are adding bed capacity at unprecedented levels, yet our occupancy rates tell a sobering story. As of late 2025, our total capacity has reached 67,361 beds, but we aren’t filling them:

In 2024, our overall annual occupancy was just 59%, meaning we operated 41% below capacity. Despite this, we have added another 3,000 beds this year alone.

When growth is driven by bed count without a corresponding increase in utilization, we see a race to the bottom: operating costs rise, and price-per-room drops. We have to ask the tough questions: What is the actual value we are generating per bed, per worker, and per island?

The data is clear: we are building a massive infrastructure that we are failing to fill. If we continue to expand our bed capacity without modernizing our regulatory framework, we aren’t just wasting investment. We are setting our tourism sector up for a slow-motion decline.

My advocacy for these changes is not a departure from my faith or our shared values. Rather, it is an appeal for transparency over hypocrisy. We currently tolerate a “floating bar” system that exists in a legal gray area, encourages black-market activity, and denies our capital’s premium hotels a fair chance to compete.

Progress requires us to be more than just builders of resorts; we must be architects of a modern, competitive economy. It is time for a serious, high-level dialogue between the government and the private sector to bridge this gap. We can no longer afford to let the 41% of our empty beds remain silent.

The question is no longer whether we should have this debate—the question is how much longer we can afford to wait.

We need to talk about the budget. Not the one on paper, but the one playing out in reality.

At the start of this year, the narrative was clear: fiscal discipline. We were told that the government would tighten the belt on State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The budget allocated for capital contributions—money given to these companies just to keep them running or expanding—was set at a modest MVR 378.3 million.

It sounded like a plan. It sounded like reform.

But as of October, that plan has evaporated. The government has already pumped MVR 2 billion into these companies as capital. That is not a typo. That is MVR 1.6 billion more than what was budgeted.

If you look at the same period last year, we have spent nearly MVR 287 million more this year. For all the talk of austerity and reform, the drain on the public purse is actually widening.

Where is the money going?

According to statistics obtained by Dhauru, we can see exactly where these injections are flowing. It isn’t going into innovation; it’s mostly going into keeping the lights on and the machinery moving in companies that struggle to stand on their own feet.

Just look at the top beneficiaries of this capital injection in the first six months:

• Fahi Dhiriulhun Corporation (FDC): MVR 370.4 million

• RDC: MVR 331.2 million

• Fenaka: MVR 262.1 million

• WAMCO: MVR 118 million

• Addu Airports Company: MVR 62.3 million

But this MVR 2 billion is only half the story.

There is a second layer of spending hidden under “subsidies.” The government released another MVR 3.1 billion in subsidy grants to nine companies. The lion’s share, naturally, went to STO (MVR 1.8 billion) to suppress the price of staple foods and fuel.

When you do the math—combining the direct capital injections and the subsidies—the state has directly transferred MVR 4.3 billion to SOEs up until October.

The “Merger” Illusion

The government’s strategy so far has been consolidation. We hear about merging Company A with Company B, hoping that smashing two inefficiencies together will somehow create one efficiency.

But the numbers tell us this isn’t working. The goal was to reduce expenditure. The reality is a massive budget overrun. Mergers are often just administrative shuffling; they don’t solve the core rot of political patronage, bloated staffing, and lack of commercial discipline.

The Real Solution: Dismantle and Democratize

We cannot keep bailing out these companies with taxpayer money. It is unsustainable, and frankly, it is unfair to the private sector that has to compete without a government safety net.

We need a radical shift. We need to stop treating SOEs as extensions of the government and start treating them as businesses. And if they are businesses, let the market decide their worth.

My proposal is simple: List them.

We should be moving to list major SOEs on the Stock Exchange.

1. End the Dependency: If a company like Fenaka or RDC is viable, let it raise capital from investors, not the finance ministry.

2. Force Transparency: Publicly listed companies are subject to scrutiny that a government department is not. They have to answer to shareholders who care about profit and efficiency, not just ministers who care about votes.

3. True Ownership: Instead of “state ownership”—which really just means bureaucratic control—let Maldivian citizens own the shares.

The government needs to let go of the control. As long as the state holds the reins, these companies will always be treated as political tools rather than commercial entities. And as long as they are political tools, they will continue to cost us billions.

MVR 4.3 billion is a lot of money. It’s money that could have been spent on economic diversification or paying down our national debt. Instead, it was swallowed by the SOE machine.

It’s time to turn off the tap.

I eventually finished reading ‘Why Nations Fail’, by James A. Robinson and Daron Acemoglu.

It covers thousands of years of history, is dense, and boldly asserts that geography is irrelevant. Culture is irrelevant. The only thing separating the rich from the poor is institutions.

As I turned the pages, reading about the colonization of South America, the Glorious Revolution in England, and the intricacies of Botswana’s diamond trade, I couldn’t help but constantly mentally CTRL+F for “Maldives.”

Although the Maldives isn’t specifically examined in the book,the framework is so appropriate for our island setting that it almost feels awkward. From the perspective of a Maldivian examining our economy, history, tourism, and precarious democracy, these are my thoughts on the book.

The Main Concept: Inclusive vs. Extractive

The writers’ thesis is straightforward. When a country has inclusive institutions, laws and procedures that enable a large number of people to participate, innovate, and earn money it succeeds. They fail when they have Extractive Institutions. They are the systems designed to take wealth from the many and funnel it to a small elite.

As Acemoglu and Robinson write:

Nations fail today because their extractive economic institutions do not create the incentives needed for people to save, invest, and innovate. Extractive political institutions support these economic institutions by cementing the power of those who benefit from the extraction.

The “Geography Hypothesis”; the notion that we should be impoverished because we are small, remote islands with no resources—was the prevailing narrative about the Maldives for a very long time. Or, conversely, that we are a “paradise,” so we should be rich.

Why Nations Fail argues that resources are irrelevant if the “rules of the game” are rigged.

The Resort Tycoon vs. The Guesthouse Owner

This is where it hits home.

For decades, Maldivian tourism was the textbook definition of an Extractive Institution. “One island, one resort” was our policy. This sounds fantastic for privacy, but from an economic standpoint, it established a system in which a small number of tycoons, often with strong ties to political power, controlled the main economic engine.

The wealth was generated in the atolls, but it was extracted and sent straight to Male’ (or offshore bank accounts). The islanders who live next to the opulent resort? They were often barred from even visiting. They didn’t have property rights over their own lagoon. They were spectators in their own economy.

The “Guesthouse Revolution” then began, roughly in 2009 or 2010.

This was a move toward inclusivity, according to Acemoglu and Robinson.

Families in Maafushi, Thoddoo, or Dhigurah were suddenly able to take part in the market. You didn’t need millions of dollars and a government lease to start a business; you just needed a spare room and some hustle.

The outcome? You can see it physically. Cafes, dive centers, and multi-story buildings have suddenly appeared on islands that were drowsy and reliant on Male. That is the power of inclusive economic rights.

The “Iron Law of Oligarchy”

The book does, however, also issue a warning regarding the “Iron Law of Oligarchy.” This is the depressing tendency for new leaders to overthrow old tyrants, only to take over the exact same extractive machinery and use it for themselves.

History is not destiny... inclusive institutions are not the only possible outcome. In fact, they are the exception. The norm is extractive institutions.”

This hurts a little when you consider our political history since 2008.

We’ve had several presidential and party changes. But have we changed the institutions?

• The judiciary is still frequently viewed as a political instrument.

• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are still used to hand out jobs in exchange for loyalty (patronage politics).

• Male’s concentration of power creates a bottleneck where you need to “know someone” in order to complete tasks.

The book makes the case that if we don’t break this cycle, that is, if we don’t create institutions that are more powerful than the individuals in positions of authority, we will simply keep switching out elites while the system continues to be extractive.

Creative Destruction

One of my favorite concepts in the book is Creative Destruction. This is the idea that for an economy to grow, old ways of doing things must be allowed to die so new ones can rise. The problem is, elites hate creative destruction. It threatens their monopolies.

Creative destruction creates losers as well as winners in the political arena as well as in the economic marketplace... Fear of creative destruction is the main reason why there was no sustained increase in living standards between the Neolithic and Industrial revolutions.

We witness this tension all the time in the Maldives. We see it when taxi centres fought against introducing ride-hailing apps years ago when they were first introduced. We see it when big resort operators lobby against guesthouses, claiming they “ruin the brand”. In reality they just hate the competition.

A successful nation allows the new to replace the old. The old guard is shielded at the expense of everyone else in a failing country.

The Verdict

Why Nations Fail is a bit repetitive, and it perhaps ignores how international geopolitics (like China vs. India) forces small nations like ours into tough spots regardless of our internal institutions.

But as a framework for understanding the Maldives? It’s essential.

It made me realise that our development isn’t about building a bigger bridge or reclaiming more land. These are merely signs of development. The question of whether a young person on an island has the same political voice, economic opportunities, and legal protections as a landlord in Male’ is what constitutes real development.

We are successful if we can create institutions that safeguard that individual. The book’s title pretty much sums up what happens if we create systems that only shield the wealthy and powerful.

Rating: 4.5/5 Even if you just skim the historical chapters to get to the theory, it’s still highly recommended.

I have always been a proponent of the free market. However, I also believe that when the market fails to provide essential goods and services at a fair price to the common people, it is the state’s duty to intervene. It is a classic case of market failure.

Nowhere is this failure more evident than in the housing crisis within the Greater Malé Region. The current situation is unsustainable. Here are my suggestions for radical, government-led interventions to ease the burden on citizens.

Establishment of a Rent Regulatory Authority & Immediate Rent Freeze

We need an autonomous body dedicated to oversight of the housing market in Malé. This authority would mandate that every rental unit is registered. To immediately stabilize the volatile market, this body should implement a temporary rent freeze (a moratorium on rent increases) for an initial period of 2–3 years. Following this stabilization period, the board would transition to a strict price ceiling mechanism, setting maximum rental prices based on specific criteria such as square footage, condition, and location. All tenancy agreements must be registered here. This body would act as a safeguard for tenants, ensuring compliance and penalizing predatory landlord practices.

A 20% Rental Income Tax

I propose the introduction of a specific 20% tax on rental income. Strict enforcement is non-negotiable; heavy fines must be levied on tax evasion. This revenue should not vanish into the general budget. Instead, it should be hypothecated (earmarked) for a “Housing Relief Fund.” This capital would be reinvested to build social and mid-range housing and to empower a robust public-private real estate model.

Means-Tested Housing Allowance

We need a dedicated portal for a new government welfare initiative: a Housing Allowance. My recommendation is a targeted direct cash subsidy for lower- and mid-income earners who are currently spending more than 40% of their monthly take-home pay on rent.

Based on my initial projections, the government needs to provide this subsidy immediately to approximately 15,000 beneficiaries at an average rate of MVR 5,000 per month. This amounts to an annual expenditure of MVR 75 million. I believe this cost is manageable; we can create the necessary fiscal space within the budget by curbing wasteful recurrent expenditures.

To ensure fiscal responsibility and prevent fraud, eligibility must be strictly means-tested by verifying bank statements and income documents.

Shifting Focus: Rent-to-Own and Mid-Range Housing

The current market is saturated with high-end luxury flats, while the average citizen is left behind. The government must pivot to incentivize business models that increase the supply of mid-range apartments within the next five years, specifically utilizing “rent-to-own” schemes.

This model should feature accessible entry points, such as low down payments capped at 5–10%, with monthly lease payments structured so that a portion (e.g., 15–20%) goes directly toward the principal equity of the home. This acts as a bridge, reducing the intense demand for social housing by empowering the middle class to build asset ownership gradually. I see the recent real estate initiative by BML as a model worth supporting and replicating to some extent.

Privatizing Efficiency: A Public-Private Partnership for Housing

For the above ideas to scale, I propose listing the Fahi Dhiriulhun Corporation (FDC) on the Maldives Stock Exchange. The government should divest, selling 55% of shares to major industry players (e.g., Rainbow, RCC, BML) and other interested parties. By incentivizing private sector efficiency within a state mandate, we can accelerate development. And also governement can consider raising capital to this company by listing in the Singapore and other Stock Exchanges.

Continuous Allocation: The Singapore Model

Housing policy cannot be a five-year election cycle gimmick. We need a continuous, non-stop effort. FDC should introduce a digital portal similar to Singapore’s HDB flat portal. This would be a “one-stop shop” where citizens can apply for social and mid-range housing at any time and track project progress. Allocation should be dynamic (e.g., first-come, first-served or needs-based) as soon as units are completed, rather than the government releasing a massive, politicized “list” once per presidential term.

Restricting Land Ownership and Redistribution

This is the most radical but necessary point. Wealth inequality in our economy is exacerbated by land concentration—specifically, a few individuals, families, and corporates holding vast swathes of land in Malé. We need a thorough land audit. I propose placing a cap on ownership (e.g., a maximum of 3 plots per single entity). Excess land held by monopolistic entities should be acquired or redistributed for public housing needs.

Lower Housing Loan Interest Rates

Using the Sovereign Development Fund (SDF) as a guarantee, the government should push banks to lower housing loan interest rates to 5%. I understand this affects banking profitability, but institutions like BML should not prioritize billions in profit over the national crisis. A moderate profit margin is acceptable if it yields a higher economic impact by making housing affordable.

Fiscal Prioritization

Finally, the government must make hard choices. We should halt non-essential PSIP (Public Sector Investment Program) projects nationwide for a period of 10 years and redirect that capital expenditure exclusively toward resolving the housing issue.

These policies are bold, and they need to be tested. Nothing is possible until we have the courage to implement it. The way we are currently addressing this crisis is disjointed; we cannot simply build a few towers and call it a solution. It requires systemic reform.

The Essential Commodities Price Index (ECPI) for Malé recorded a slight decline in October 2025, falling by -0.98% compared to the previous month (September 2025). This marginal easing of the index, which stood at 114.04, was primarily driven by lower prices in the heavily weighted Food category.

Despite the month-on-month decrease, the annual inflation rate tells a different story: the year-on-year ECPI for Malé rose by +1.89% compared to October 2024, suggesting that essential goods remain more expensive than they were a year ago.

Food Prices Drive Monthly Decline

Food, which accounts for the largest share of the ECPI basket at 70.94%, saw its prices drop by -1.49% month-on-month.

• The most notable declines were observed in Fruits (-7.94%) and Vegetables (-0.98%).

• However, these drops were partially compensated by price increases in groups like Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery (+1.15%) and Milk, other dairy products and eggs (+0.38%).

On a year-on-year basis, Food prices increased by +1.82%. This increase was led by significant jumps in Fruits (+6.94%) and Other Food products n.e.c (+4.06%). This was offset by a substantial decline in Vegetables prices (-10.10%) over the year.

Other Essential Commodity Movements

Price changes in other essential groups showed mixed trends:

• Beverages: Prices rose both month-on-month (+0.45%) and year-on-year (+2.68%). Key annual increases were seen in Coffee and coffee substitutes (+8.68%) and Fruit and vegetable juices (+5.67%).

• Personal Care Products: This group saw a slight monthly increase of +0.18% and a higher annual jump of +2.99%.

• Gas and Other Fuel: Prices increased by +0.64% from September to October 2025 but declined annually by -0.83% compared to October 2024.

ECPI: An Inflation Early Warning

The ECPI tracks a basket of 96 essential commodities, including food, beverages, fuel, and personal care products. Serving as a sub-index of the broader Consumer Price Index (CPI), the ECPI is designed to act as an early warning system for inflation in essential goods and is used to inform price regulations.

The latest figures from the Maldives Bureau of Statistics suggest that while consumers enjoyed a temporary, albeit small, price reprieve in October due to seasonal factors in fruits and vegetables, the higher year-on-year rate indicates persistent inflationary pressure on essential household items.

The government’s 2026 budget of MVR 64.2 billion, recently presented to parliament, serves as a crucial blueprint for the Maldivian economy in the coming year. However, the ensuing parliamentary debate seems largely mired in political jargon.

Regrettably, it appears to be a blueprint that will ultimately result in a fiscal impasse.

The budget doubles down on excessive spending, funded by debt and what seems to be wishful thinking, while ignoring the public’s most urgent issues: housing and inflation.

Here is my analysis of the 2026 budget and the things I worry about.

The MVR 16.8 Billion Question Mark

The government estimates that MVR 40 billion in revenue will be raised to finance this MVR 64.2 billion plan. The huge MVR 26.3 billion gap that needs to be financed is the issue. The government plans to secure this funding through the following sources:

• Domestic (Local) Sources: MVR 9.5 billion

• External (Foreign) Sources: MVR 16.8 billion

The first significant red flag in the budget is the MVR 16.8 billion in external financing. This optimism contradicts the state of affairs today. The government has not yet secured the MVR 12 billion in external funding that it anticipated for this year (2025). There has been no successful sale of a foreign bond or a budget support loan.

The government’s own budget documents emphasise this risk, pointing to the Maldives’ declining credit rating as a recurring obstacle, so it’s not just pessimism. Since we were unable to secure a smaller amount this year, it is unrealistic to assume that we will be able to secure a larger amount (MVR 16.8 billion) next year.

Unsustainable Spending and Inevitable Inflation

The expenditure side of the budget has a significant flaw.

The recurrent expenses are expected to rise by MVR 2.7 billion. A massive MVR 2.2 billion increase in salaries and allowances is the main motivator. This spending binge is taking place in the absence of any noteworthy new initiatives to boost state revenue.

Even worse, the estimated MVR 6 billion in new salaries and benefits that will be injected into the economy will almost certainly increase demand, leading to inflation and drive up prices for the ordinary households. The budget predicts 4.1% inflation, which seems extremely optimistic given how government policy is escalating the situation.

The primary discrepancy is:

• Projected Expenditure Growth: 13.5%

• Projected Revenue Growth: 6.5%

• Projected GDP Growth: 5.3%

Spending is expected to increase at a rate that is more than twice as fast as the state’s revenue and economic growth. This is what an unsustainable path looks like for me.

The Great Squeeze: How Debt Is Devouring Development

Where is all the money going, then? Development won’t occur. It will go to debt repayment.

According to my analysis of the budgetary data, debt repayment will account for an astounding 29% of the total national budget, or roughly MVR 22 billion.

Over the past two years, the cost of servicing our foreign debt alone has increased fivefold to MVR 12.9 billion next year. This has a direct, crippling effect on future development.

The budget for the Public Sector Investment Program (PSIP), which includes new schools, harbours, and infrastructure, has been cut by 29% (MVR 3.4 billion) in comparison to 2024 because we must prioritise debt servicing and repayment. The national development budget is in disarray while ongoing expenses for salaries and new insurance plans are skyrocketing.

Refinancing $450 million of the $500 million Sukuk that is due next year is merely a postponement, not a solution to reducing the debt stock. The debt servicing bill will only rise in the upcoming years because we are merely deferring a $450 million payment, most likely at a higher interest rate.

A visionless budget

This budget treats the acute housing crisis and the growing cost of living, the public’s top concerns, as afterthoughts.

• On Inflation: The policies in the budget actively contribute to inflation.

• On Housing: Housing policy receives a meagre MVR 1 billion. To put this into perspective, a comparable sum was allotted this year, but it is only anticipated that MVR 392 million will be spent by the end of the year, raising questions about whether even this meagre sum will be used efficiently.

• On Currency: There is a serious risk that the Rufiyaa will devalue due to the high demand for foreign currency to pay off our enormous debts, which would increase the price of our imports.

There are no bold measures proposed in the budget to cut spending or implement new policies to address the most pressing issues like mounting national debt. The document avoids difficult decisions, relies on fantasy financing, and places the burden on ordinary citizens through inflation and stagnant development.

It will be extremely challenging to carry out this budget as proposed. Securing the required external financing will be the government’s greatest challenge.

The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) is getting ready to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) operation, marking a dramatic shift in monetary policy. The MMA is going to buy government T-bills from the Maldives Pension Administration Office for MVR 2.5 billion, or roughly USD 163 million.

The government’s justification appears to be straightforward: this action is meant to clear off the backlog of unpaid bills to the private sector and bring much-needed liquidity to the businesses.

A closer look at the figures, however, worries me.

The Looming Forex Challenge

The pressure on the Maldivian Rufiyaa, an unavoidable consequence of such a massive liquidity injection, is my main worry. The demand for US dollars will spike when the central bank pumps MVR 2.5 billion into circulation. The crucial question is whether the MMA has enough firepower to protect the value of MVR.

The reserve numbers are alarming. Since June, the MMA’s usable foreign reserves have been declining, and as of August, they were only USD 189 million. This indicates that our usable reserves are almost fully covered by the new injection of MVR 2.5 billion. This significantly limits the MMA’s ability to stabilise the currency by intervening in the forex market. Without a robust intervention mechanism, a depreciation of the Rufiyaa seems not just possible but probable.

Every household would be a hit. Higher import prices result from a weaker Rufiyaa, which directly contributes to inflation. An overheated economy could result from this, which would reduce purchasing power and put a heavy burden on common people.

A Puzzling Policy Reversal

This move is especially confusing because of its timing and seeming inconsistency with recent policy. The MMA’s statistics show MVR 7 billion in excess liquidity in the circulation as recently as June. To address this, it rightly implemented a contractionary monetary policy, conducting Open Market Operations (OMO) to absorb the surplus Rufiyaa.

It seems inconsistent to now completely reverse policy and inject a significant amount of money into the economy. Why pivot from a policy designed for an economy with excess liquidity to one typically reserved for a liquidity crunch? This sharp reversal raises questions about the MMA’s underlying strategy and its reading of the economic reality.

This circumstance also draws attention to a deeper problem with governance. The MMA seems to be forced to finance the budget deficit as a result of the government’s inability to implement austerity measures. This sets a worrying precedent, blurring the lines between prudent monetary policy and fiscal support, which could compromise the central bank’s independence.

In my view the MMA must give a thorough and unambiguous explanation for this QE operation before moving forward. They must specify the precise actions they plan to take in order to:

1. Mitigate the immense pressure on the forex market.

2. Control the inflationary spiral that is likely to follow.

3. Prevent the economy from overheating.

This well-intentioned liquidity injection could quickly turn into a dangerous gamble with the country’s economic stability if there is no clear plan in place.

Patients with chronic conditions like diabetes, who require regular, life-saving medications, have been trapped in a bureaucratic maze for months, caught between pharmacy shelves and a silent government agency. The National Social Protection Agency (NSPA) is to blame for the trouble because it takes too long to approve things, which keeps the State Trading Organisation (STO) from getting the drugs it needs.

“I’ve been trying to get my medicine since July.” One person who has been trying to get Wegovy, a common diabetes drug, through STO for four months said, “Still no approval from NSPA.” “It used to be easy to get. My supply is almost gone now. I’ll have to pay for it myself if there’s no other way.

Many people are having trouble with the high cost of these drugs when they buy them privately. Because they need to be taken regularly, the cost of buying multiple doses becomes too high.

Another person has been trying to get the diabetes medicine Mounjaro from STO Pharmacy for six months. The drug was available before under NSPA, but now that it’s taking longer for approval, he is very worried. He said, “It’s a very expensive medication.” If I buy it on my own, a three-month supply costs more than USD 1,000. NSPA isn’t answering.

Aasandha health insurance doesn’t always cover these drugs because they aren’t on the list of essential medicines. This is a problem for the few people who really need them.

Stuck in the bureaucratic blockade

The system only works if STO imports these drugs after getting NSPA’s approval or promise to pay for them for patients who have prescriptions. The slow approval process and stricter rules are the cause of the current gridlock. NSPA has reportedly turned down some requests even when a doctor has prescribed the drug.

One anonymous complainant said, “They quickly approve such requests for people connected to the government, while earlier requests stay open.” This raised suspicions that the process is not only slow but also unfair.

The problem is everywhere. Many patients who need long-term medication are having the same problems, which is why the STO medical call centre is flooding with complaints from patients and their families every day.

When asked about the growing crisis, STO’s media representative, Yoosuf Shah, did not give any specific information about the situation. He only said that the company is “working to provide essential medications needed by the public.”

Meanwhile, the NSPA has not been able to give an official statement or explanation for the long delays, leaving patients in a state of painful uncertainty. The government agency in charge of protecting them socially has been silent, which says a lot as supplies run low and the threat of having to buy them privately looms.

The Maldivian government set an ambitious goal for itself this year: welcome 2.3 million tourists to its sunny shores. But as we head into the final quarter, the latest statistics suggest this target is likely just out of reach.

While the country is on track for a fantastic year of tourism, the math for hitting that 2.3 million mark is looking increasingly tough. Let’s break it down.

The Mountain to Climb

According to the Ministry of Tourism, 1.6 million tourists had already visited the Maldives by last Wednesday. That’s a huge success, but it leaves a gap of 695,587 visitors who need to arrive in the last three months of the year.

With just 98 days left, that means the country needs to average 7,098 tourist arrivals every single day until the new year.

To put that number in perspective, even during December—the absolute peak of the tourist season—daily arrivals typically average around 6,500. The challenge is magnified by the fact that we’re currently in the low season, with daily arrivals having dropped to about 4,895 this month.

Based on these trends, the most realistic projection is that the Maldives will welcome around 2.2 million tourists this year—a phenomenal achievement, but still about 58,000 short of the official goal.

It’s Not All Bad News

Missing a target doesn’t mean the year is a failure. Far from it. The industry is actually performing exceptionally well compared to last year.

Total arrivals so far are up by a healthy 9.6% compared to the same period in 2024.

Even the current “low” daily numbers are 12% higher compared to last year.

The growth is undeniable.

Shifting Tides: Who Is Visiting the Maldives?

Traditional markets are driving the strong performance. China has taken the lead as the top source of tourists, followed closely by Russia, the UK, Germany, and Italy.

Top 5 Markets This Year:

1. China: 254,950 tourists

2. Russia: 194,606 tourists

3. UK: 142,957 tourists

4. Germany: 111,569 tourists

5. Italy: 111,253 tourists

The most interesting story, however, is the shift with the Indian market. Once the number one source market, India has now dropped out of the top five. Despite a target to attract 200,000 Indian tourists this year, only 92,252 have visited so far, accounting for just 5.7% of total arrivals.

In a recent interview, Visit Maldives Chairman Abdullah Giyas Riyaz acknowledged the challenge, stating that hitting the target would require “record arrivals” and approximately 13% growth over the final months—a tall order for any destination.

So, while the 2.3 million goal might not be met, the Maldives is still celebrating a year of remarkable growth in its most vital industry.

The original article published on Dhauru: https://dhauru.com/post/business/39137 [DHV]