Marginal Dip in Essential Commodity Prices, but Year-on-Year Inflation Persists
Don't Be Fooled by October's Price Relief: Here's where your grocery money is still going, from a +8.68% jump in coffee to a -10.10% dip in vegetables.
The Essential Commodities Price Index (ECPI) for Malé recorded a slight decline in October 2025, falling by -0.98% compared to the previous month (September 2025). This marginal easing of the index, which stood at 114.04, was primarily driven by lower prices in the heavily weighted Food category.
Despite the month-on-month decrease, the annual inflation rate tells a different story: the year-on-year ECPI for Malé rose by +1.89% compared to October 2024, suggesting that essential goods remain more expensive than they were a year ago.
Food Prices Drive Monthly Decline
Food, which accounts for the largest share of the ECPI basket at 70.94%, saw its prices drop by -1.49% month-on-month.
The most notable declines were observed in Fruits (-7.94%) and Vegetables (-0.98%).
However, these drops were partially compensated by price increases in groups like Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery (+1.15%) and Milk, other dairy products and eggs (+0.38%).
On a year-on-year basis, Food prices increased by +1.82%. This increase was led by significant jumps in Fruits (+6.94%) and Other Food products n.e.c (+4.06%). This was offset by a substantial decline in Vegetables prices (-10.10%) over the year.
Other Essential Commodity Movements
Price changes in other essential groups showed mixed trends:
Beverages: Prices rose both month-on-month (+0.45%) and year-on-year (+2.68%). Key annual increases were seen in Coffee and coffee substitutes (+8.68%) and Fruit and vegetable juices (+5.67%).
Personal Care Products: This group saw a slight monthly increase of +0.18% and a higher annual jump of +2.99%.
Gas and Other Fuel: Prices increased by +0.64% from September to October 2025 but declined annually by -0.83% compared to October 2024.
ECPI: An Inflation Early Warning
The ECPI tracks a basket of 96 essential commodities, including food, beverages, fuel, and personal care products. Serving as a sub-index of the broader Consumer Price Index (CPI), the ECPI is designed to act as an early warning system for inflation in essential goods and is used to inform price regulations.
The latest figures from the Maldives Bureau of Statistics suggest that while consumers enjoyed a temporary, albeit small, price reprieve in October due to seasonal factors in fruits and vegetables, the higher year-on-year rate indicates persistent inflationary pressure on essential household items.