The Capacity Trap: Is the Maldives Building a Tourism Bubble?
Why 2 million arrivals doesn’t mean 100% success for Maldives tourism.
We’ve all seen the headlines: tourist arrivals are smashing records, and the Maldives is officially the “it” destination of 2025. But if you look past the glossy Instagram reels of turquoise lagoons, there’s a math problem brewing in our paradise.
The latest data from the Ministry of Tourism shows we’ve hit a massive milestone—over 2 million arrivals by November 2025. But here’s the kicker: we’re building faster than we’re filling.
The Numbers Game: Growth vs. Glut
In the last year alone, the Maldives has expanded its operational capacity by 3,651 beds (increasing from 62,920 in November 2024 to 66,571 in November 2025). On paper, more beds should mean more money. In reality, it’s creating a “capacity trap.”
Occupancy is Stagnant: Despite the jump in arrivals, our average occupancy rate for the year has dipped slightly to 58% (down from 58.4% in 2024).
The Price of Empty Beds: When you add 3,000+ new beds but the percentage of people filling them doesn’t rise, it triggers a race to the bottom. Resorts and guesthouses are forced to lower prices to stay competitive, while the fixed costs of running an island—electricity, staff, and imports—stay high or even rise.
Breaking Down the “Value”
We often talk about “Total Arrivals,” but for our generation entering the workforce, the real metrics should be about efficiency.
The Marketing Miss: A Stagnant Budget in a Growing Market
There is a clear solution to this occupancy crisis: Destination Marketing. To fill 66,000+ beds, the Maldives needs to be louder than ever on the global stage.
However, the latest 2025 budget reveals a worrying trend. While the number of beds has surged and the government has hiked the TGST to 17% to collect more from the industry, the promotion budget for the Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC) has remained stagnant at MVR 154.2 million—the exact same amount as 2024.
Industry experts are sounding the alarm. We are essentially building a bigger restaurant but spending the same amount on the “Open” sign. Our regional competitors are outspending us, and without a significant boost in marketing to match our capacity growth, we risk being a destination that has plenty of room but not enough guests to pay the bills.
Why This Matters
For the youth, this isn’t just “business talk.” An oversupplied market with a weak marketing budget means:
Lower Service Charges: If room rates drop to attract guests, the service charge in your pocket shrinks.
The Sustainability Gap: True sustainability isn’t just about “no plastic straws.” It’s about a value-based model rather than a volume-based model.
Career Stagnation: In an industry focused on cutting costs to survive low occupancy, investment in staff training and high-level positions often takes a backseat.
We’ve successfully expanded by over 3,000 beds this year. Now, the challenge isn’t building the next resort; it’s making sure we actually have the budget to tell the world to come and fill them. It’s time to stop measuring success by how many beds we have, and start measuring it by how much value those beds bring to our people.